Time Series Analysis of Poverty Reduction Indicators: Case of Pakistan, India and Bangladesh

Authors

  • Quratulain Akhtar Lecturer, Institute of Business & Management (IB&M), University of Engineering and Technology, Lahore, Punjab, Pakistan.
  • Sadia Butt PhD Scholar, Dr Hasan Murad School of Management, University of Management and Technology, Lahore, Punjab, Pakistan.
  • Madiha Niaz PhD Scholar, Dr Hasan Murad School of Management, University of Management and Technology, Lahore, Punjab, Pakistan.

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.55737/qjssh.715369415

Keywords:

Financial Development, ARDL, Trade Openness, Poverty Reduction, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh

Abstract

This paper investigated the indicators of poverty reduction. The independent variables are financial development, military expenditure, remittances, trade openness and world oil prices. A time series analysis was conducted from 1980 to 2016. The ADF and Phillip-Perron unit root tests were applied to find the level of co-integration. The study researched the long-run relationship between independent and dependent variables by applying the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bound testing approach. The order of integration according to the unit root test is mixed for the variables. In all three countries, the ARDL bound testing approach found the long-run relationship between poverty and its indicators.

Author Biography

  • Sadia Butt, PhD Scholar, Dr Hasan Murad School of Management, University of Management and Technology, Lahore, Punjab, Pakistan.

References

Abdin, J. (2016). Financial Development and Poverty Reduction: Exploring the Links between the Issues Using Evidence from Bangladesh. International Journal of Financial Research, 7(4). https://doi.org/10.5430/ijfr.v7n4p44

Adams, R. H., & Cuecuecha, A. (2013). The Impact of Remittances on Investment and Poverty in Ghana. World Development, 50, 24–40. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2013.04.009

Adams, R. H., & Page, J. (2005). Do international migration and remittances reduce poverty in developing countries? World Development, 33(10), 1645–1669. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2005.05.004

Agusalim, L. (2017). The Dynamic Impact of Trade Openness on Poverty: An Empirical Study of Indonesia’s Economy. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 7(1), 566-574. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/ijefi/issue/32002/353239

Akhtar, Q., & Butt, S. (2022). Sequential Mediation Between Night Shift and Job Performance in The Context of Pakistan. International Journal of Management Research and Emerging Sciences, 12(4), 83–102. https://doi.org/10.56536/ijmres.v12i4.344

Akhtar, R., Liu, H., & Ali, A. (2017). Influencing factors of poverty in Pakistan: Time series analysis. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 7(2), 215-222. https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/download/3349/pdf/11570

Apanisile, O. T., & Okunlola, O. C. (2014). An empirical analysis of effects of military spending on economic growth in Nigeria: A bound testing approach to co-integration 1989-2013. Journal of Public Administration, Finance and Law, 3(6), 117-130. https://www.jopafl.com/uploads/issue6/AN_EMPIRICAL_ANALYSIS_OF_EFFECTS_OF_MILITARY_SPENDING_ON_ECONOMIC_GROWTH_IN_NIGERIA.pdf

Azam, M., Haseeb, M., & Samsudin, S. (2016). The Impact of Foreign Remittances on Poverty Alleviation: Global Evidence. Economics & Sociology, 9(1), 264–281. https://doi.org/10.14254/2071-789x.2016/9-1/18

Bayar, Y. (2017). Financial development and poverty reduction in emerging market economies. Panoeconomicus, 64(5), 593–606. https://doi.org/10.2298/pan150403014b

Bayar, Y., & Sezgin, H. F. (2017). TRADE OPENNESS, INEQUALITY AND POVERTY IN LATIN AMERICAN COUNTRIES. Ekonomika, 96(1), 47. https://doi.org/10.15388/ekon.2017.1.10663

Butt, S., & Yazdani, N. (2023). Implementation of Quality Management Practices and Firm’s Innovation Performance: Mediation of Knowledge Creation Processes and Moderating role of Digital Transformation. Pakistan Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences, 11(4). https://doi.org/10.52131/pjhss.2023.1104.0658

Butt, S., Mubeen, I., & Yazdani, N. (2024). Exploring the Lived Experiences of Individuals to manage and Cope with Type 2 Diabetes applying IPA. Pakistan Languages and Humanities Review, 8(2), 526–539. https://doi.org/10.47205/plhr.2024(8-II)46

Chitiga, M., Fofana, I., & Mabugu, R. (2012). The poverty implications of high oil prices in South Africa. Environment and Development Economics, 17(3), 293–313. https://doi.org/10.1017/s1355770x11000428

Dagume, M. A. (2021). FACTORS INFLUENCING POVERTY IN SOUTH AFRICA: TIME SERIES ANALYSIS. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 11(5), 86–95. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijefi.11629

Dewi, S., Abd. Majid, M. S., & Kassim, S. (2018). Dynamics of Financial Development, Economic Growth, and Poverty Alleviation: The Indonesian Experience. South East European Journal of Economics and Business, 13(1), 17–30. https://doi.org/10.2478/jeb-2018-0002

Dhrifi, A. (2013). Financial development and poverty: what role for growth and Inequality. International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, 3(4), 119-129. https://doi.org/10.6007/IJARAFMS/v3-i4/362

Duarte, L. D. R. V., Kedong, Y., & Xuemei, L. (2017). The Relationship between FDI, Economic Growth and Financial Development in Cabo Verde. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 9(5), 132. https://doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v9n5p132

Fambeu, A. H. (2021). Poverty reduction in sub-Saharan Africa: The mixed roles of democracy and trade openness. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 30(8), 1–19. https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199.2021.1946128

Gaaliche, M., & Gaaliche, M. Z. (2014). The causal relationship between remittances and poverty reduction in developing country: using a non-stationary dynamic panel data. Atlantic Review of Economics: Revista Atlántica de Economía, 1(1), 1. https://dialnet.unirioja.es/descarga/articulo/5318214.pdf

Geng, L., Abban, O. J., Hongxing, Y., Ofori, C., Cobbinah, J., Ampong, S. A., & Akhtar, M. (2023). Do military expenditures impede economic growth in 48 Islamic countries? A panel data analysis with novel approaches. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 1–35. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-023-03413-8

Henderson, E. A. (1998). Military Spending and Poverty. The Journal of Politics, 60(2), 503–520. https://doi.org/10.2307/2647920

Ho, S.-Y., & Iyke, B. N. (2017). Does Financial Development Lead to Poverty Reduction in China? Time Series Evidence. Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, 9(1), 99. https://doi.org/10.22610/jebs.v9i1.1561

Huay, C. S., & Bani, Y. (2017). DOES REMITTANCES REDUCE POVERTY? AN EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE IN SELECTED DEVELOPING COUNTRIES. Journal of Islamic, 2(6), 92-101.

Idrissi, B. I., & Kawkaba, S. (2023). The Impact of International Remittances on Poverty: Evidence From The Southern and Eastern Mediterranean Countries. Migration & Diversity, 2(2), 203–220. https://doi.org/10.33182/md.v2i2.2876

Ismail, S. (2017). Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in South Asian Countries: Empirical Evidences. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 7(3), 318-325. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/365382

Jalilian, H., & Kirkpatrick, C. (2005). Does Financial Development Contribute to Poverty Reduction? Journal of Development Studies, 41(4), 636–656. https://doi.org/10.1080/00220380500092754

Justice, E., OrLu, L., & Nwala, Y. G. (2023). The Impact of Financial Development on Poverty in Nigeria. International Journal of Economics and Financial Management, 8(4), 40-53. https://iiardjournals.org/get/IJEFM/VOL.%208%20NO.%204%202023/The%20Impact%20of%20Financial%202.pdf

Kaidi, N., Mensi, S., & Ben Amor, M. (2018). Financial Development, Institutional Quality and Poverty Reduction: Worldwide Evidence. Social Indicators Research, 141(1), 131–156. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-018-1836-0

Keho, Y. (2017). Financial Development and Poverty Reduction: Evidence from Selected African Countries. International Journal of Financial Research, 8(4), 90. https://doi.org/10.5430/ijfr.v8n4p90

Khaleefah, A. S., Palliam, R., & Al-Salem, A. (2016). Sustaining Standard of Living Amidst Volatile Oil Prices – Lessons from the Gulf Countries. Dspace.auk.edu.kw, 15. https://doi.org/10.7916/D81G0M3Z

Khan, M., & Majeed, M. T. (2023). Financial sector development and energy poverty: empirical evidence from developing countries. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30(16), 46107–46119. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-25585-6

Khan, R., Zeeshan, Haque, M. I., Gupta, N., Tausif, M. R., & Kaushik, I. (2022). How foreign aid and remittances affect poverty in MENA countries? PLOS ONE, 17(1), e0261510. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0261510

Law, S. H., & Singh, N. (2014). Does too much finance harm economic growth? Journal of Banking & Finance, 41(41), 36–44. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.12.020

Li, Z., Hasan, M. M., & Lu, Z. (2023). Studying financial inclusion, energy poverty, and economic development of South Asian countries. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30(11), 30644-30655. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-24209-9

Mahesh, M. (2016). The Effect of Trade Openness on Income Inequality: Evidence from Developing Countries. SSRN Electronic Journal, 36(3), 1751–1761. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2736721

Markowski, S., Chand, S., & Wylie, R. (2017). Economic Growth and Demand for Military Expenditure in the Indo-Pacific Asia Region. Defence and Peace Economics, 28(4), 473–490. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2016.1274059

Mirza, F., Hashmi, M., Iqbal, S., & Iqbal, A. (2014). Foreign Remittances and Household Poverty: Evidence from Pakistan. Forman Journal of Economic Studies, 10, 155–166. https://doi.org/10.32368/fjes.20141007

Munđar, D., Matotek, D., & Jakuš, M. (2012, January). Quantitative research methods participation in the information sciences papers in Croatia. In 23rd Central European Conference on Information and Intelligent Systems, CECIIS.

Muthalib, A. A., Adam, P., Saenong, Z., & Suriadi, L. O. (2018). The influence of fuel prices and unemployment rate towards the poverty level in Indonesia. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 8(3), 37-42. https://doaj.org/article/91bf9b7ae3dd4897887ec0764842684d

Naranpanawa, A., & Bandara, J. S. (2012). Poverty and growth impacts of high oil prices: Evidence from Sri Lanka. Energy Policy, 45, 102–111. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.01.065

Nawoba, O. E., Nwonu, C. O., & Agbaeze, E. K. (2017). Impact of Fallen Oil Prices on the Nigeria Economy. Journal of Poverty Investment and Development, 33, 75-82. https://www.iiste.org/Journals/index.php/JPID/article/download/36225/37223

Nessa, H.-T. -, & Imai, K. S. (2023). Trade openness and working poverty: empirical evidences from developing countries. International Trade, Politics and Development, 7(2), 58–76. https://doi.org/10.1108/itpd-08-2022-0018

Obinna, O., & Innocent, E. (2024). Does Financial Development Lead to Poverty Reduction in Nigeria? Evidence from Toda Yamamoto Causality Test. Journal of Economics and Allied Research (JEAR), 392.

Ojikutu, O. T., Onolemhemhen, R. U., & Isehunwa, S. O. (2017). Crude Oil Price Volatility and its Impact on Nigerian Stock Market Performance (1985-2014). International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 7(5), 302-311.

Oluwatayo, I. B., & Alagbe, S. A. (2015). Fuel Price Hike and Vulnerability of Households in Nigeria: Empirical Evidence from Ibadan Metropolis. Journal of Social Sciences, 43(3), 301–309. https://doi.org/10.1080/09718923.2015.11893448

Pradhan, B. K., Sahoo, A. (2002). Oil Price Shock and Poverty in a CGE Framework. Discussion Paper Series No. 18. New Delhi: National Council of Applied Economic Research.

Rewilak, J. (2017). The role of financial development in poverty reduction. Review of Development Finance, 7(2), 169–176. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rdf.2017.10.001

Reyes, C. M., Sobrevinas, A. B., Bancolita, J., & De-Jesus, J. (2009). Analysis of the Impact of Changes in the Prices of Rice and Fuel on Poverty in the Philippines. Discussion Paper Series No. 2009-07, The Research Information Staff, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.

Saari, M. Y., Dietzenbacher, E., & Los, B. (2016). The impacts of petroleum price fluctuations on income distribution across ethnic groups in Malaysia. Ecological Economics, 130, 25–36. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2016.05.021

Sehrawat, M., & Giri, A. K. (2018). The impact of financial development, economic growth, income inequality on poverty: evidence from India. Empirical Economics, 55(4), 1585–1602. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-017-1321-7

Semančíková, J. (2016). Trade, Trade Openness and Macroeconomic Performance. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 220, 407–416. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2016.05.515

Setyawan, D. (2014). The Impacts of the Domestic Fuel Increases on Prices of the Indonesian Economic Sectors. Energy Procedia, 47, 47–55. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egypro.2014.01.195

Tahir, M., & Pg Haji Omar Ali, D. H. N. B. (2014). Trade Openness and Economic Growth: A Review of the Literature. Asian Social Science, 10(9), 137. https://doi.org/10.5539/ass.v10n9p137

Tajammal, R., & Butt, S. (2024). Precarious Tightrope Between External Debt and Economic Growth: A Comparative Analysis of Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Deleted Journal, 13(2), 76–90. https://doi.org/10.62345/jads.2024.13.2.6

Umair, T., & Butt, S. (2023). The Role of Packaging in Consumer Purchase Intentions:Evidence from Packed Milk Industry of Pakistan. Journal of Applied Research and Multidisciplinary Studies, 4(2). https://doi.org/10.32350/jarms.42.06

Vacaflores, D. E. (2018). Are remittances helping lower poverty and inequality levels in Latin America? The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 68, 254–265. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2017.09.001

Zahonogo, P. (2016). Financial Development and Poverty in Developing Countries: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 9(1), 211. https://doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v9n1p211

Zhong, M., Chang, T., Goswami, S., Gupta, R., & Lou, T.-W. (2016). The nexus between military expenditures and economic growth in the BRICS and the US: an empirical note. Defence and Peace Economics, 28(5), 609–620. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2016.1144897

Published

2024-06-30

Issue

Section

Articles

How to Cite

Akhtar, Q., Butt, S., & Niaz, M. (2024). Time Series Analysis of Poverty Reduction Indicators: Case of Pakistan, India and Bangladesh. Qlantic Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities, 5(2), 170-183. https://doi.org/10.55737/qjssh.715369415

Similar Articles

51-60 of 223

You may also start an advanced similarity search for this article.